September 21, 2007 06:46 PM UTC

Senate Race Drops to #3; Schaffer Touts Mythical Poll

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Here’s the memo on the poll. Interestingly, one of the items in the memo notes that “Voters already know that Mark Udall is a liberal.” Okay, so voters know Udall is a liberal, yet they still prefer him to Schaffer? That’s good news for Bob?

From The Washington Post blog “The Fix”:

3. Colorado (R): The open seat race between Rep. Mark Udall (D) and former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) drops two slots this month but the fundamental dynamic of the race remains unaltered. Republicans are already beginning to paint Udall as a “Boulder liberal” while Democratsd are making the counter argument that Schaffer is far more conservative than the average Colorado voter. Having huddled with Schaffer earlier this week, we came away impressed by his plainspokeness and his — to our mind — smart strategic plan to run as a reform-minded candidate. Republicans are pushing back hard on the idea that this race is Udall’s to lose. Schaffer’s campaign released a poll that showed him trailing Udall by just two points in a three-way race. And they make the argument that the Democrats who have been elected in the last few years have run as conservatives, putting to lie the idea that the state had fundamentally changed its ideological underpinnings.(Previous ranking: 1)

Schaffer released a poll showing him two points back in a three-way race? It turns out that this third candidate is a Green Party candidate, Bob Kinsey, who picks up seven – yes, 7 – percentage points in the Schaffer poll.

That’s all well and good for Schaffer, but no third party candidate received more than 1% of the vote in the 2006 gubernatorial race or the 2004 Senate race. Even the most well-known and well-funded Green Party candidate in recent history, Ralph Nader, managed just 5% of the vote in Colorado when he ran for President in 2000. Touting this three person poll is beyond ridiculous, because a Green Party candidate in Colorado will be lucky to get 2% of the vote.

This three person poll is in fact the same Schaffer poll that shows him five points behind Udall in a straight-up matchup, which is obviously bad news for a Republican in a Republican state.

Schaffer apparently does much better in a three-way race with a mythical strong third-party candidate. Perhaps he should poll on a pretend four-way race to see if that puts him over the top. Talk about grasping for straws.